Analyzing my Samvat 2079 - (year 2022)

As we reach the end of Samvat 2079, it is important to reflect on the performance of the stocks. Last year has been a rollercoaster and it was truly enjoyable to experience this market cycle. While NIFTY 50 delivered a return of 7.6% in this 1-year period with Sensex up 6.8%. Further, Nifty Small Cap and Midcap Index outperformed by a huge margin in the latter half of the year with delivering 28.3% and 26% returns.

My Samvat 2079 picks -

1. Angel One - Angel One was beaten down unnecessary due to its valuations and it gave me a good opportunity to average it down and buy more during last year. My rationale is simple here, with rising financialization of savings trend in India, this was not a short-term play for me and hence the volatility of the stock did not bother much, and I kept averaging it down. I still believe in the narrative that there will be a rising penetration of Demat Accounts in India as we can see that 94% of Gross Clients are added through tier - II and III cities. I will continue to hold this stock in my portfolio till the time valuations become insanely absurd. Some Triggers 1. Entry into AMC Business in coming years. (said in Concalls) 2. Rise in F&O trend in India, which is the main source of income. 3. Strong Leadership. 4. Asset light and low-cost model. But we need to understand this is a cyclical play.
   

2. IDFC First - IDFC First was undoubtedly the leader of this momentum rally which was led from a shift from Private Large Cap Companies to lower ones. IDFC first main trigger was the shift in management focus towards cleaning the NPAs and having a sustainable framework for the new loan book growth. Although I did not hold this stock completely till the October 2023, I still believe in this company and would re-enter when I again get a good valuation.
   

3. HDFC Bank - Not commenting anything right now on this, because I still cannot believe how the largest bank of India have muted stock price growth when Economy and Annual Results both are having exceptional growth. (More on this in my Samvat 2080 picks)
   

4. Vaibhav Global - The business model is quite distinctive, and they have created a niche for themselves in the global retail market especially. With rising Customers and Strategic Partnerships, I still remain bullish on this company for the near term. Main concern would be of how the slowdown in 2023-2024 will impact this company, and everyone should hence have an exit plan ready.
   

5. VRL Logistics - This was a momentum play for me during last year Diwali where Government was trying to reform the logistics sector by increasing transparency and reducing frictions. Although government has not yet achieved the goals they have for the sector, Logistics sector still looks very attractive and will definitely have a look if any major changes are brought into, to improve the trade within India.
   

6. Agarwal Industries - Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd is primarily engaged in the business activities of manufacturing and trading of Petrochemicals (Bitumen and Bituminous Products), logistics of bitumen and liquefied Petroleum Gas and energy generation through Windmills. The only reason I sold this stock was due to an absurd rise in prices during the second half of the year. Risk I see is it can face a lot of competition from local businesses as entry barrier is not that strong and also sustainability of bitumen in road construction. Furthermore, EPS growth is not in line with PAT growth due to continuous dilution, which might affect future returns.

This was my rationale for buying, holding or selling of my Samvat 2079 stocks.

Stay tuned for Samvat 2080 stocks!

Thank you for Reading!

(Not an Investment Advice)